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Gary Collins


Professor of Medical Statistics and Director of CSM

  • Director of UK EQUATOR Centre
  • NIHR Senior Investigator


Gary's research interests are primarily focused on methodological aspects surrounding the development and validation multivariable prediction (prognostic) models (design and analysis) and he has published extensively in this area. He is particularly interested in the sample size considerations and the role of big data in developing and evaluating prediction models. He is also interested in the systematic review and appraisal of prognostic studies and developed the CHARMS Checklist for conducting systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies. 

Along with Doug Altman, Karel Moons and Hans Reitsma, UMC Utrecht, the Netherlands, he led an international collaboration to produce the TRIPOD consensus guidance on issues to report when developing or validating (prognostic and diagnostic) prediction models. This guidance is currently being extended for prediction models developed using 'big data' or individual participant data from multiple studies. Gary was involved in the development of PROBAST, a risk of bias tool to evaluate prediction model studies (using regression or machine learning/artificial intelligence methods). Two papers were published in the Annals of Internal Medicine describing the PROBAST checklist and and accompanying Explanation & Elaboration paper.

Gary led an international initiative to develop guidance for studies using artificial intelligence and machine learning (TRIPOD+AI). He has also been involved in other guidance for reporting artificial intelligence/machine learning studies including CONSORT-AI/SPIRIT-AI (for reporting AI intervention studies), STARD-AI (for reporting AI based diagnostic test accuracy [DTA] studies), and DECIDE-AI (bridging the development-implementation gap). He is also involved in developed risk of bias tools for machine learning diagnostic test accuracy studies (QUADAS-AI) and prediction model studies (PROBAST-AI). Gary is also involved with colleagues from the University of Southern California developming guidance fir the responsible use of large language models such as ChatGPT for research (the CANGARU guidelines) and with colleagues from McMaster University for developing reporting guidance on studies evaluating chatbots for providing medical advice (CHART guideline).

Gary is also been involved in the development of reporting guidelines including the GATHER statement for reporting global health estimates, and published in the Lancet and PLoS Medicine, and the AGReMA statement for reporting mediation analyses, published in JAMA. More recently he is involved in updating the SPIRIT and CONSORT guidelines. Gary is also a steering group member of the international STRATOS Initiative, which aims to provide accessible and accurate guidance in the design and analysis of observational studies, and currently sits on the external advisory board for the Centre for Open Science Transparency and Openness Promotion Guidelines

Gary has more than 400 peer-reviewed articles, editorials and commentaries, including over 50 research articles in the ‘Big 6’ general medical journals, and is the first or senior author of more than 150 articles (google scholar profile). He is principal investigator and co-applicant on a number of methodological and clinical research grants (>£23 million).  

He is also a Statistical Editor (‘hanging committee’) for the British Medical Journal, an Associate Editor for Statistics in MedicineResearch Integrity and Peer Review, and on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Clinical Oncology. In 2016 Gary co-founded and is Editor-in-Chief of the journal Diagnostic & Prognostic Research. Gary served 3-year term as board member of the NIHR HTA Commissioning Board between 2017 and 2020, and currently serves on the NIHR Doctoral Fellowship selection panel.


Gary teaches the personalised / stratified medicine course on the Masters of Science in Public Health: Comparative Effectiveness Research at the University Paris Descartes, France.  He also teaches on the

Gary also supervises DPhil/PhD/MD students and manages a team of statisticians and researchers working on applied statistical methodology (primarily clinical prediction and prognosis). Gary is also a member of the NDORMS Graduate Studies Committee.

X: @GSCollins