The findings come as real-world data shows around half of people discontinue GLP-1 receptor agonist treatment within 12 months, and just months after NICE published quality standards recommending post-treatment support for at least one year.
Across 37 studies including 9,341 adults, weight increased by an average of 0.4 kg (0.9 pounds) per month after weight management drugs were stopped. Researchers estimate that, at this rate, people would return to their starting weight within 1.5 to 2 years. For newer medicines such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, regain averaged 0.8 kg (~1.8 pounds) per month, with projections indicating return to baseline by approximately 1.5 years – though information on weight change beyond 12 months after these drugs remains limited.
Crucially, weight regain after stopping drugs was faster than after ending behavioural weight loss programmes such as diet and exercise support by approximately 0.3 kg (0.7 pounds) per month – independent of how much weight was initially lost. While behavioural support alongside medication was associated with greater weight loss, it did not slow the rate of regain afterwards.
Cardiometabolic markers including HbA1c, fasting glucose, blood pressure, cholesterol and triglycerides improved during treatment but are estimated to return to baseline levels within approximately 1.4 years after medicines stopped.
Read the full story on the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences website.