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The study, published in Neuron, found that both confidence in our own decisions and estimates of external circumstances provide important clues. When people were confident in a decision but received an unexpected negative outcome, they were more likely to attribute it to external circumstances. On the other hand, when they were less certain about their decision, they were more likely to consider their own performance as the cause.
Participants made these conclusions partly because they tracked how certain they were about their own performance throughout the assessment even before they obtained any feedback.
Using ultra-high-field brain imaging and targeted non-invasive brain stimulation, the researchers identified two prefrontal-subcortical brain circuits involved in this process. The findings provide new insight into how our sense of control is formed and how it subsequently shapes learning from success and failure.
Lead author Dr Yanhe Liu, Department of Experimental Psychology, said: ‘The ability to distinguish what we can control from what we cannot is central to adapting successfully to the world around us. Understanding the brain mechanisms behind that judgement gives us a foundation for investigating what happens when this process becomes biased or disrupted.’
Read the full story on the University of Oxford website.