Psychotic disorders, such as schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder are severe mental health conditions that often begin in adolescence or early adulthood. Early detection is critical as timely support can prevent illness onset and improve long-term outcomes. Until now, clinicians have faced challenges in predicting who might develop these conditions, relying on fragmented assessment tools that focus on one disorder at a time.
The research, led by experts from the University of Oxford and King’s College London and supported by the NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre (OH BRC) introduces a clinical prediction model that could transform early intervention in mental health care.
This new model takes a transdiagnostic approach, meaning it predicts risk for both psychosis and bipolar disorder together. By analysing routinely collected health data, the model provides clinicians with an evidence-based tool to identify high-risk individuals earlier and more accurately.
The study analysed de-identified electronic health records from thousands of patients across multiple UK sites, making it one of the largest investigations of its kind. Researchers developed and validated the model using advanced statistical techniques, ensuring compliance with international standards for prediction research.
The model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, outperforming existing single-disorder tools. Importantly, it uses data that is already available in healthcare systems, such as previous mental health consultations and demographic information, making it practical for real-world clinical use.
Read the full story on the Department of Psychiatry website.