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Using linked patient records from 4,366,981 people registered at 244 English GP practices between April 2007 and June 2019, the researchers estimate that exposure to average daily temperatures outside a mild reference range (18°C to 21°C) accounts for around 3.0% of recorded health-care costs in their dataset
Using illustrative budget figures detailed below, this may amount to £3 billion in costs for NHS England and be of the same order of magnitude as spending on dentistry.
As NHS leaders plan for winter pressures and wider service resilience, this research provides new evidence for how temperature-related demand and costs sit across the health system in England.
The UK frequently experiences cold conditions, with days averaging 0°C to 9°C accounting for around 64.4% of the estimated burden, reflecting cumulative increases in NHS use across the winter period. The study also raises a practical concern in extreme cold: when average temperatures fell below 0°C, health-care use declined in the data. This suggests barriers to seeking care in hazardous cold conditions such as snow and black ice.