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A new risk model, developed by UK researchers to predict a person’s risk of being admitted to hospital and dying from Covid-19 has been published by The BMJ

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A model that can calculate a person’s risk of becoming infected and then seriously ill due to COVID-19 has been shown to accurately estimate risk during the first wave of the pandemic in England, in new research led by a team from the University of Oxford.

The model, developed using routine anonymised data from more than 8 million adults in 1205 general practices across England, uses a number of factors such as a person’s age, ethnicity and existing medical conditions to predict their risk of catching COVID-19 and then dying or being admitted to hospital.

The model has the potential to provide doctors and the public with more nuanced information about risk of serious illness due to COVID-19, and to help patients and doctors reach a shared understanding of risk, within the context of individual circumstances, risk appetite and the sorts of preventative measures people can take in their daily lives.

The full story is available on the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences website

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